Building energy use in China: Ceiling and scenario

•Energy use has a ceiling for the limitation of energy supply and requirement of CO2 emission reduction.•In order to keep the stable economy and social development, building energy use should be no more than 1 billion tce.•China building energy use can be divided into four sub-sectors based on the current situation.•It is necessary to control the energy use intensity to achieve the target of total energy control.

With increasing levels of urbanization and a growing economy, total building energy use in China is rapidly increasing. However, energy use must be controlled due to limited energy supply and the goal of lowering carbon emissions. This study tried to define a reasonable limit for total energy use in China, and, more specifically, a target for building energy use. Domestic energy production, energy imports, and the need to reduce CO2 emissions and fossil fuel combustion were considered when analyzing the available energy for China. The current status and future trends of energy use by industry, building, and transportation sectors were analyzed to determine how much energy the building sector can use considering economic growth and improving living conditions. Within the framework of “Ecological civilization,” this study suggests that annual building energy use in China has to be limited to no more than 1 billion tce.