Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution.