The reality and future scenarios of commercial building energy consumption in China

While China's 11th Five-Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, energy elasticity and energy-efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-Use Energy Model.China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end-use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy-related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end-use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use.The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy-efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories, and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.