Identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to TOT and divestiture business models in China's water market

•Triangulation method for providing SWOTs surrounding TOT and divestiture models•The level of consensus on the SWOTs is assessed by expert opinion survey.•Two cases are analysed to supplement and complement the opinion survey results.•Future PPP research issues are discussed and presented.

This study attempts to enhance the understanding of the two emerging public–private partnership (PPP) business models – Transfer-Operate-Transfer (TOT) and divestiture – in the context of Chinese water sector. Foreign investors aiming to enter or expand their share in the market need to select an optimal PPP model between competing ones through a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOTs) analysis. For the purpose, we employ the triangulation approach consisting of an opinion survey to measure the level of consensus on each of a total of eleven SWOT factors surrounding TOT and divestiture models, and in-depth case studies on the two-representative TOT and divestiture projects. Our assessments indicate the emergence of a strong consensus between interviewees regarding bid premium, financial burden, and bidding method in TOT and fixed-return provisions, operational management efficiency, majority control, and equity transfer proportion in divestiture. However, it is advised that foreign investors should be flexible in interpreting the factors and respond them at the solution level considering a project-specific environment.