Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
2760708 Journal of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Anesthesia 2012 7 Pages PDF
Abstract

ObjectiveThe present study aimed to examine the predictive performance of the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) in a large cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery from 1999 through 2010 because methodologic shortcomings have hampered many previous studies questioning its predictive performance.DesignPopulation-based prospectively registered data.SettingThe Western Denmark Heart Registry, a multi-institutional registry.ParticipantsTwenty-one thousand six hundred sixty-four patients.InterventionsOn-pump cardiac surgery.Measurements and Main ResultsThe predictive ability of the logistic EuroSCORE was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) for the discrimination test, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) calibration test, and the mean estimated-to-observed mortality ratio (E/O). The overall AUC was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.81; HL test, p < 0.01; E/O 1.9). For coronary artery bypass grafting, the AUC was 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81; HL test, p < 0.01; E/O 2.3). For coronary artery bypass grafting plus valve replacement, the AUC was 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73; HL test, p = 0.02; E/O 1.5). For aortic valve replacement, the AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80; HL test, p < 0.01; E/O 2.5). The overall and procedural specific E/O ratios tended to increase from 1999 to 2010. Mortality was overestimated across all levels of estimated risk, and in low-to-medium-risk patients, this overestimation increased most notably with time.ConclusionsThe EuroSCORE provides moderate-to-good discrimination and poor calibration. Despite substantial changes in risk factors during the study period, the EuroSCORE consistently overestimated 30-day mortality independent of the preoperative risk level and surgical procedure performed, indicating improved quality of surgery and patient care.

Related Topics
Health Sciences Medicine and Dentistry Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine
Authors
, , , ,