Chronotropic incompetence predicts mortality in severe obstructive pulmonary disease

•Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test.•Retrospective follow-up for adverse events: death and lung transplant.•Chronotropic incompetence was highly prevalent in this cohort.•Chronotropic incompetence was an independent predictor of adverse events.

We evaluated the prevalence of chronotropic incompetence (CI), a marker of autonomic dysfunction, and its prognostic value in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We performed a retrospective analysis of 449 patients with severe COPD who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test, after excluding patients with lung volume reduction surgery, left ventricular dysfunction and those not in sinus rhythm. CI was defined as percent predicted heart rate reserve (%HRR). Events were defined as death or lung transplant during a median follow-up of 68 months. Median age was 61 years; median percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (%FEV1) of 25% and median %HRR of 33%. The hazard ratio for an event in the lowest quartile of %HRR, taking the highest quartile as reference, was of 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 2.1–4.8; p < 0.001). In a multivariate regression model, %HRR was an independent predictor of events. In conclusion, CI was an independent and powerful outcome predictor in patients with severe COPD.