A new early-warning prediction system for monitoring shear force of fault plane in the active fault

The most common method used to describe earthquake activity is based on the changes in physical parameters of the earth’s surface such as displacement of active fault and seismic wave. However, such approach is not successful in forecasting the movement behaviors of faults. In the present study, a new mechanical model of fault activity, considering the shear strength on the fault plane and the influence of the resistance force, is established based on the occurrence condition of earthquake. A remote real-time monitoring system is correspondingly developed to obtain the changes in mechanical components within fault. Taking into consideration the local geological conditions and the history of fault activity in Zhangjiakou of China, an active fault exposed in the region of Zhangjiakou is selected to be directly monitored by the real-time monitoring technique. A thorough investigation on local fault structures results in the selection of two suitable sites for monitoring potential active tectonic movements of Zhangjiakou fault. Two monitoring curves of shear strength, recorded during a monitoring period of 6 months, turn out to be steady, which indicates that the potential seismic activities hardly occur in the adjacent region in the near future. This monitoring technique can be used for early-warning prediction of the movement of active fault, and can help to further gain an insight into the interaction between fault activity and relevant mechanisms.