Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
292513 Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics 2013 5 Pages PDF
Abstract

•Bootstrapping methods are used to calibrate extreme value analysis methods for peak-over-threshold wind (POT) speed observations.•The Generalised Pareto methodology is demonstrated to be unsuitable for wind speed data.•When the observations comprise Storm maxima or n-day maxima, the population of the missing values below the threshold is known.•The most accurate analysis is obtained by fitting the POT observations to a left-censored distribution.

This paper uses Bootstrapping methods to calibrate the accuracy of estimating the design once in 50 year wind speed, V50, from peak-over-threshold wind speed observations. It confirms previous studies showing that the generalised Pareto distribution is not a satisfactory model for extreme wind speeds. It demonstrates that when n-day maxima are used the value of the total population of independent events is known. This allows the peak-over-threshold observations to be represented by a left-censored probability distribution, eliminating mean bias and greatly reducing the standard error in the V50 estimates.

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Physical Sciences and Engineering Energy Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
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