Effect of change in systolic blood pressure between clinic visits on estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk

Systolic blood pressure (SBP) often varies between clinic visits within individuals, which can affect estimation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We analyzed data from participants with two clinic visits separated by a median of 17 days in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 808). Ten-year CVD risk was calculated with SBP obtained at each visit using the Pooled Cohort Equations. The mean age of participants was 46.1 years, and 47.3% were male. The median SBP difference between the two visits was −1 mm Hg (1st to 99th percentiles: −23 to 32 mm Hg). The median estimated 10-year CVD risk was 2.5% and 2.4% at the first and second visit, respectively (1st to 99th percentiles −5.2% to +7.1%). Meaningful risk reclassification (ie, across the guideline recommended 7.5% threshold for statin initiation) occurred in 12 (11.3%) of 106 participants whose estimated CVD risk was between 5% and 10%, but only in two (0.3%) of 702 participants who had a 10-year estimated CVD risk of <5% or >10%. SBP variability can affect CVD risk estimation, and can influence statin eligibility for individuals with an estimated 10-year CVD risk between 5% and 10%.