Development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for international sites, challenges and guidelines

This article provides guidance to conduct a site-specific seismic hazard study, giving suggestions for overcoming those challenges that are inherent to the significant amounts of epistemic uncertainty for sites at remote locations. The text follows the general process of a seismic hazard study, describing both the deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Key and controversial items are identified in the areas of recorded seismicity, seismic sources, magnitude, ground motion models, and local site effects. A case history corresponding to a seismic hazard study in the Middle East for a Greenfield site in a remote location is incorporated along the development of the recommendations. Other examples of analysis case histories throughout the World are presented as well.

Research highlights► Site-specific seismic hazard study and suggestions for overcoming those challenges that are inherent to the significant amounts of epistemic uncertainty for sites at remote locations. ► Main aspects of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). ► Regional and site geology in the context of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), including state-of-the-art ground motion estimation methods, and geophysical conditions. ► Senior seismic hazard analysis (SSHAC) as a mean to incorporate the opinions and contributions of the informed scientific community.