Reliability analysis of a passive cooling system using a response surface with an application to the flexible conversion ratio reactor

A risk-informed methodology is applied to the selection of an ultimate heat sink for a Passive Secondary Auxiliary Cooling System. The reliability of the chosen design during the bounding transient, a station blackout, is calculated. The methodology considers both active component failures and the potential for inadequate cooling due to adverse thermal–hydraulic conditions. A response surface is developed as a surrogate for the thermal–hydraulic code and used for uncertainty propagation. The uncertainty introduced by the use of the response surface itself is explored. Two sensitivity studies are performed. The first study measures the sensitivity of peak clad temperature to initial ambient conditions and system degradation. The second study explores the sensitivity of system reliability to code error.