From clinical judgment to odds: A history of prognostication in anoxic-ischemic coma

Persistent coma from a major anoxic-ischemic injury to the brain may indicate there is less chance for full recovery. The tools of prognostication to assess comatose survivors of cardiopulmonary resuscitation have developed over several decades. Physicians would initially base their judgment on experience and data on outcome in these patients in the early years were merely on awakening not on disability.In the late 1970s, a large multicenter prospective study was performed on outcome in nontraumatic coma. The impetus for this study was the result of Plum and Jennet's collaboration. In 1981 – for the first time – complex statistics were used to improve the accuracy of prognosis and became known as the “Levy algorithms.” These early seminal studies shaped the prediction models and implied that clinical information alone could assist physicians in making a prediction. Later, probabilistic methods became more commonplace.