| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304436 | Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering | 2012 | 6 Pages |
The risk formula, expressing the probability of at least one occurrence of earthquakes of greater-than-design-value magnitudes over the economic life of a structure, is modified taking into consideration the probability of no-earthquake years. The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of three scales: Richter magnitude, also known as local magnitude (ML), body-wave magnitude (Mb), and moment magnitude (MM) in a geographical area encompassing the Bingöl Province in Turkey are taken from two sources: (1) report by Kalafat et al. (2007) [14] and (2) the web site reporting data by Kandilli Observatory which has been recording earthquakes occurring in and around Turkey since 1900. Statistical frequency analyses are applied on the three sample series using various probability distribution models, and magnitude versus average return period relationships are determined. The values of the ML, Mb, and MM series for 10% and 2% risk are computed to be around 7.2 and 8.3. The tectonic structure and seismic properties of the Bingöl region are also given briefly.
► The classical Risk formula is modified analytically considering no-earthquake years. ► Annual maximum earthquakes recorded in a specific geographical region are taken. ► Recorded series of local, body-wave, and moment scales are statistically analyzed. ► Earthquake magnitudes having 10%, 5%, and 2% Risks are computed. ► Tectonic and seismic properties are discussed in conjunction with frequency analyses.
