The uncertainties of a Pd3–PGV onsite earthquake early warning system

Earthquake early warning systems have been developed to help minimize the loss of life and other damages resulting from catastrophic earthquakes. In the past several decades, these systems have evolved to function using a variety of methodologies. This study introduces an onsite system developed from a correlation between the precursor measurement (Pd3) and the peak ground acceleration (PGV) from 780 historical earthquake events recorded in Taiwan, Japan and South California. The study analyzes and integrates the uncertainty of the onsite system, establishing the statistical relationship between the PGV forecast, the Pd3 precursor, and the exceedance probability (PE). A method is presented for forecasting the PGV by scaling the Pd3. Furthermore, this study also suggests a decision-making model to determine whether or not the early warning notification should be issued, based on factors such as the uncertainty of the early warning system, the magnitude of the precursor, and warning recipient characteristics.

► Present the source of uncertainty in a Pd3–PGV earthquake early warning system. ► The uncertainty of the empirical relationship is owing to natural randomness. ► Develop a risk-based model incorporating the uncertainty in decision making. ► The consequence is also accounted for in the risk-based model.