Lisbon earthquake scenarios: A review on uncertainties, from earthquake source to vulnerability modelling

This paper briefly reviews the main topics developed in the last 15 years dealing with advances on predicting earthquake scenarios for the Lisbon Region. These developments, which have been reverted into seismic scenario simulators, include the entire earthquake process, as different modules, from the seismic source to vulnerability modelling. Recent achievements in several modules are presented, describing the level of uncertainties associated with the source, attenuation, soil effect, typology classification and inventory of the building stock, and vulnerability assessment of each typology. One simplified model is shown, and results of other models are compared for two selected occurrence scenarios. The paper ends with a brief appointment on the selection of scenario types, a key point in the application of simulators, and highlights the issues where more research and development should be made to optimize the gains in knowledge and to reduce overall uncertainties.