Spatial reliability analysis of explosive blast load damage to reinforced concrete columns

•An approach is presented to estimate the probability of damage of RC columns subject to explosive blast loading.•Spatial variability of material and dimensional properties are considered.•The effect of blast load variability on structural reliability is investigated.•Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive Blast Reliability Curves.

Columns are the key load-bearing elements in frame structures and exterior columns are probably the most vulnerable structural components to terrorist attack. In this paper, a spatial reliability analysis is conducted to predict the damage for reinforced concrete (RC) columns subject to explosive blast loading. The spatial variability of material and dimensional properties of RC columns are modelled by stationary and non-stationary random fields. The variability of blast loading is also taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation and numerical methods are used to derive Blast Reliability Curves for RC columns under explosive loading for a number of terrorism threat scenarios, based on a high–fidelity physics-based computer programme LS-DYNA to estimate design and residual axial load-carrying capacity of RC columns. It was found that spatial variability has a significant effect on structural reliabilities and the spatial model will lead to more accurate predictions of damage and safety risks.