Cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis for an efficient reduction of uncertainty

Many planning and production processes are characterized by uncertain data and uncertain information. For realistic modeling of such processes these uncertainties have to be considered. The new approach presented in this paper takes epistemic uncertainty into account, for which fuzzy set theory is applicable. In some cases it is possible and useful to reduce epistemic uncertainty by additional monetary investments. It is postulated that uncertain forecast values, e.g. expected safety, quality, or the completion date of a structure, can be improved or scheduled more precisely by a higher investment. Aim of the presented cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis is the evaluation of the effectiveness of monetary investments on the reduction of uncertainty of the analyzed forecast values.

► Investment projects are usually characterized by uncertain data and information. ► Fuzzy set theory is applicable for modeling epistemic uncertainty. ► Fuzzy input variables are mapped onto fuzzy output variables using fuzzy analysis. ► Cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis enables an efficient reduction of uncertainty.