Probabilistic Seismic Assessment of RC Bridges: Part II — Nonlinear Demand Prediction

One of the most determinant components of any seismic safety assessment procedure is the estimate of the nonlinear seismic demand, particularly if such procedure is probabilistic rather than deterministic. Indeed, the prediction of the seismic demand of RC structures is dictated by a number of variables, related to the seismic action or to the geometrical and material properties, with different relevancy and uncertainty levels. From a macro-viewpoint one can distinguish the different approaches for nonlinear demand prediction in two major groups: nonlinear static and dynamic. Whereas the latter is widely recognised as the most accurate approach, the former, particularly by means of nonlinear static procedures (NSPs), represents a valid alternative tool for performance-based seismic assessment of structures, quite accepted among the scientific community worldwide. Significant effort has therefore been made, over the past few years, to improve those simplified methods and several different proposals in terms of application methodology have come up. Simultaneously, validation studies have thoroughly been carried out, even though focusing mainly on regular, building structures, rather than typically irregular bridges, and have focused the validation through the direct comparison of response prediction. The capability of such procedures within a probabilistic framework that yields the collapse probability of randomly sampled RC viaducts is herein investigated. A commonly employed nonlinear static procedure (N2) is further validated against nonlinear dynamic analysis using two distinct probabilistic procedures, described and tested in a companion paper, which account differently for the uncertainty of the concerned variables (geometry, material properties, earthquake records, intensity level). A case study of seven bridge configurations, with different (ir)regularity levels, is considered together with a relatively large set of real earthquake records and random simulation is carried out using the Latin Hypercube Sampling scheme. The conclusions have further probed the suitability of nonlinear static analysis in estimating seismic demand by leading, under probabilistic conditions, to slightly conservative probabilities of collapse of RC bridges with respect to nonlinear dynamic analysis.