Longitudinal patterns of youth access to cigarettes and smoking progression: Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort (MACC) study (2000–2003)

ObjectivesTo measure community-level changes in the methods youth use to obtain cigarettes over time and to relate these methods to the progression of smoking.MethodsWe analyzed 2000–2003 data from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort study, where youth (beginning at age 12), who were living in Minnesota at baseline, were surveyed every 6 months via telephone. We conducted mixed model repeated measures logistic regression to obtain probabilities of cigarette access methods among past 30-day smokers (n = 340 at baseline).ResultsThe probability of obtaining cigarettes from a commercial source in the past month declined from 0.36 at baseline to 0.22 at the sixth survey point while the probability of obtaining cigarettes from a social source during the previous month increased from 0.54 to 0.76 (p for both trends = 0.0001). At the community level, the likelihood of adolescents obtaining cigarettes from social sources was inversely related to the likelihood of progressing to heavy smoking (p < 0.001).ConclusionsDuring this time, youth shifted to greater reliance on social sources and less on commercial sources. A trend toward less commercial access to cigarettes accompanied by an increase in social access may translate to youth being less likely to progress to heavier smoking.