Modelling users’ behaviour of a carsharing program: Application of a joint hazard and zero inflated dynamic ordered probability model

This paper presents an econometric model for the behaviour of carsharing users. The econometric model is developed to jointly forecast membership duration, the decision to become an active member in a particular month, and the frequency of monthly usage of active members. The model is estimated using the membership directory and monthly transaction data of a carsharing program, ‘Communauto Inc.’, based in Montréal, Canada. The model shows a high degree of fit to the observed dataset and provides many behavioural details of carsharing users. The results are instructive to carsharing planners in devising efficient policies.

► Modelling users’ behaviour of carsharing member. ► Use of large scale administrative data of carsharing program. ► Application of zonal aggregate data to supplement administrative data. ► Econometric model of complex behavioural process. ► Forecasting users’ behaviour and policy analysis.