| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312179 | Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice | 2012 | 20 Pages |
The peak and decline of world oil production is an emerging issue for transportation and urban planners. Peak oil from an energy perspective means that there will be progressively less fuel. Our work treats changes in oil supply as a risk to transport activity systems. A virtual reality survey method, based on the sim game concept, has been developed to audit the participant’s normal weekly travel activity, and to explore participant’s travel adaptive capacity. The travel adaptive capacity assessment (TACA) Sim survey uses avatars, Google Map™, 2D scenes, interactive screens and feedback scores. Travel adaptive capacity is proposed as a measure of long-range resilience of activity systems to fuel supply decline. Mode adaptive potential is proposed as an indicator of the future demand growth for less energy intensive travel. Both adaptation indicators can be used for peak oil vulnerability assessment. A case study was conducted involving 90 participants in Christchurch New Zealand. All of the participants were students, general staff or academics at the University of Canterbury. The adaptive capacity was assessed by both simulated extreme fuel price shock and by asking, “do you have an alternative mode?” without price pressure. The travel adaptive capacity in number of kilometers was 75% under a 5-fold fuel price increase. The mode adaptive potential was 33% cycling, 21% walking and 22% bus. Academics had adaptive capacity of only 1–5% of trips by canceling or carrying out their activity from home compared to 10–18% for students.
Graphical abstractFigure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slideHighlights► We propose travel adaptive capacity as a new metric of urban form for peak oil planning. ► We present the TACA Sim game travel adaptive capacity survey that simulates a fuel price spike. ► A survey was conducted in Christchurch, New Zealand. ► Participants reduced current car trips by 75% during simulation of a 5-fold increase in fuel price. ► We conclude that the TACA Sim survey can be used to assess travel adaptive capacity.
