Evaluating the HATCH score for predicting progression to sustained atrial fibrillation in ED patients with new atrial fibrillation

ObjectivesAtrial fibrillation (AF) is often first detected in the emergency department (ED). Not all AF patients progress to sustained AF (ie, episodes lasting > 7 days), which is associated with increased morbidity. The HATCH score stratifies patients with paroxysmal AF according to their risk for progression to sustained AF within 1 year. The HATCH score has previously never been tested in ED patients. We evaluated the accuracy of the HATCH score to predict progression to sustained AF within 1 year of initial AF diagnosis in the ED.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 253 ED patients with new onset AF and known rhythm status for 1 year following the initial AF detection. The exposure variable was the HATCH score at initial ED evaluation. The primary outcome was rhythm status at 1 year following initial AF diagnosis. We constructed a receiver operating characteristic curve and calculated the area under the curve to estimate the HATCH score's accuracy of predicting progression to sustained AF.ResultsOverall, 61 (24%) of 253 of patients progressed to sustained AF within 1 year of initial detection, and the HATCH score receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.70).ConclusionsAmong ED patients with new onset AF, the HATCH score was a modest predictor of progression to sustained AF. Because only 2 patients had a HATCH greater than 5, this previously recommended cut-point was not useful in identifying high-risk patients in this cohort. Refinement of this decision aid is needed to improve its prognostic accuracy in the ED population.