Usefulness of prognostic indices in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage remains a significant cause of hospital admission, with mortality rates up to 14%. In order to standardise and improve care, various scoring systems (e.g. Rockall, Blatchford and Baylor) have been developed to identify those individuals at high risk of requiring treatment (transfusion, endoscopic or surgical intervention) or of re-bleeding or death. There is also increasing interest in the utilisation of scoring systems to identify individuals at low risk of complications, as these may be discharged early, possibly with outpatient endoscopy. Most scoring systems are developed to predict outcomes in non-variceal bleeding. However, several indices are used to predict the outcome of advanced liver disease, including Child–Pugh and the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD). This chapter reviews all these aspects of the various scoring systems.