Who will fall again? Predictors of further falls in one year following an injurious fall

Background and aimsTo identify predictors of further falls among older Danes presenting at emergency department (ED) with falls, evaluate the predictive value of risk factors and compare them with those found in previous studies.MethodsThree hundred and ninety-two older participants in a fall prevention trial were assessed for presence of risk factors at baseline and followed for 12 months for occurrence of falls. Through multivariate regression analysis independent predictors of falls were determined, and predictive value assessed. Predictors from other studies were applied to the present cohort.ResultsThree independent predictors of having one or more falls during 12 months of follow-up were more or equal to three falls in the previous year, Activity Balance Score below median and use of anxiolytics in the previous year. Presence of at least one of the predictors identified 74% of those who fell and 84% of those who fell at least twice. Application of predictors from previous studies revealed that they did not predict falls well in the present cohort.ConclusionsPreviously published predictors of further falls do not correctly identify high risk individuals among older Danes with falls. This stresses the importance of testing screening tools in different populations before implementation.