Risk factors associated with early and late recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a single institution's experience with 398 consecutive patients

BackgroundSurgical resection is an important curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, some patients experience an unexpected recurrence even after hepatectomy. The present study aimed to investigate risk factors and predictive criteria for early and late recurrence of HCC after resection.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 398 Chinese patients who received curative resection for HCC was conducted. Patients were divided into three groups: without recurrence, early recurrence, and late recurrence. Prognostic factors and predictive criteria for early and late recurrence were statistically analyzed.ResultsThe cumulative recurrence-free survival rates at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were 75.5%, 58.2%, 54.1%, 40.5%, and 28.7%, respectively. The distribution of the time to recurrence suggested that recurrence could be divided into early phase (before 2 years; n=164) and late phase (after 2 years; n=83). Cox's multivariate proportional hazard model analysis revealed that multiplicity of tumors (P=0.004) and venous infiltration (P=0.002) were independent risk factors associated with early recurrence. In contrast, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (P=0.007), serum albumin level (P=0.045), and HBeAg status (P=0.028) proved to be significant independent adverse prognostic factors for late recurrence. Patients with at least 1 of the 2 early recurrence risk factors (multiplicity of tumors ≥2 and venous infiltration) or with 2 or more late recurrence risk factors are often susceptible to recurrence (P=1.36e-4 and 1.0e-6, respectively).ConclusionsEarly and late recurrences correlate with different risk factors and predictive criteria. Early recurrence primarily results from intrahepatic metastases, while late recurrence may be multicentric in origin.