Serial quantification of procalcitonin (PCT) predicts clinical outcome and prognosis in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP)

Procalcitonin (PCT), a calcitonin precursor, is commonly measured in the setting of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the clinical significance of serial PCT changes has not been established. We conducted a prospective observational study of 122 patients with CAP. Thirty-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints included: (1) initial treatment failure, (2) 30-day mortality and/or initial treatment failure, and (3) intensive care unit (ICU) admission. In subgroup analysis, we classified patients into pneumococcal pneumonia and non-pneumococcal pneumonia groups. The baseline frequency of 30-day mortality was 10.7%. Increases in serum PCT levels from admission to Day 3 were observed with statistically higher frequency in patients with 30-day mortality (P = 0.002). For secondary endpoints, only the 30-day mortality and/or initial treatment failure group was statistically significant (P = 0.007). Subgroup analysis revealed statistically significant changes in the non-pneumococcal pneumonia group (N = 85) across several endpoints, including 30-day mortality (P = 0.001), initial treatment failure (P = 0.013), and 30-day mortality and/or initial treatment failure (P < 0.001). No significant changes in endpoint measurements were found in the pneumococcal pneumonia group (N = 28). Interestingly, serum PCT levels at the time of diagnosis were higher in patients with pneumococcal pneumonia than those with non-pneumococcal pneumonia (P = 0.006), and this positively correlated with disease severity scores for all patients (PCT vs. PSI: R = 0.380, P < 0.001; PCT vs. A-DROP: R = 0.422, P < 0.001) and for non-pneumococcal pneumonia (PCT vs. PSI: R = 0.468, P < 0.001; PCT vs. A-DROP: R = 0.448, P < 0.001), but not for pneumococcal pneumonia. In conclusion, serial quantification of PCT can predict clinical outcomes for patients with CAP.