Predictors of abdominal adipose tissue compartments: 18-year follow-up of young men with and without family history of diabetes

•18-year follow-up study of insulin sensitivity•Adipose tissue compartments evaluated with CT at follow-up•Traditional cardiovascular risk markers are predictors of abdominal adipose tissue.•Family history of diabetes increases unfavorable adipose tissue.•Current cardiometabolic status is most important for those without family diabetes.

BackgroundAbdominal adipose tissue (AAT) consists of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), which can be further divided into superficial and deep SAT. Despite being a key factor in the development of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, what predicts future amount of AAT is largely unknown.ObjectiveTo determine long-term predictors of amount of AAT.MethodsThis was a mean 18-year follow-up study of a cohort of 94 healthy young Caucasian men, with and without a family history of diabetes (FHD). Cardiovascular risk markers were examined both at baseline and at follow-up. At follow-up, computed tomography (CT) of AAT was conducted to assess amount of superficial and deep SAT, and VAT.ResultsIn multiple regression analyses, baseline body mass index (BMI) remained a positive predictor of future amount of superficial and deep SAT, while high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was a negative predictor of all three sub-compartments. Baseline risk markers were generally stronger predictors among men with FHD, than among men without. In addition, FHD had greater impact on amount of deep SAT and VAT, than on amount of superficial SAT.ConclusionOur data suggest that the traditional cardiovascular risk markers BMI, HDL cholesterol and family history of diabetes are long-term predictors of the different abdominal adipose tissue compartments from young towards middle age in healthy men. In men with family history of diabetes, cardiovascular risk markers at a young age seem to be of greater importance to future amount of abdominal adipose tissue, than among men without.