If grades are not good enough—The role of self-assessment in the transition to tertiary education

•Self-assessment increases the probability to submit application to tertiary education.•Its effect moderates the impact of grades on the application to tertiary education.•This moderation effect concerns those with relatively low level of GPA.

This paper studies the transition to tertiary education, using data from a Hungarian panel dataset called Life Course Survey. A sample of 4500 students is analysed from a single school cohort which began secondary school in the academic year of 2006/07 and finished it between June 2010 and 2012. The question to be analysed is whether the students’ self-assessment could modify the impact of their grades on the application to tertiary education. The results show that a more optimistic interpretation of the students’ own ability increase the probability to submit application to tertiary education among students with lower than average grades. The students with good grades are likely to be influenced by their grades rather than by their self-assessment in the transition. Among those, however, whose transition to tertiary education is ambiguous because of low grades, self-assessment does play a role.