An approach to estimate degree completion using drop-out rates

•A new methodology is proposed to estimate completion rate.•The proposed method is not based on a cohort of students.•The indicator allows an estimation without substantial delay.•The new estimator is independent of study duration.•A statistical framework is presented in which completion rates can be studied.

A completion rate of an institution I of year x is defined as the proportion of starting students during year x that succeed in graduating at I at some point in the future. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate such completion rate. This indicator is entirely based on the population of drop-out students during one academic year x at the institution I. The proposed method is not based on a cohort of students so it allows an estimation of the current school effectiveness without substantial delay. Furthermore a statistical framework is presented in which completion rates can be studied. The proposed methodology results in a statistical estimator with a bias that stays small under appropriate assumptions.