Time elapsed since the last medical visit: analysis of a statistical model applied to the case of Spanish women *

SummaryObjectiveThis study aims at two objectives: I) to develop a model capable of predicting the statistical distribution of the variable “time elapsed since the last medical visit”; II) to empirically test the theoretical model.MethodsTo develop the theoretical model, the author will use a demonstration that is statistical in nature. In order to test the theoretical distribution, the 2006 Encuesta Nacional de España data regarding females will be used.ResultsThe results found show that the distribution of the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution. This conclusion was empirically validated, and additionally, a few determinants were found that increase the likelihood that Spanish women will resort to a doctor, namely, inactivity, residence in small places and being older.ConclusionThe study concluded that the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution; thus, going to a medical appointment is still seen as a rare phenomenon for Spanish women. By comparing this data with our results, we found that a higher ratio of physicians to population, a higher time availability for each woman (especially in a labor inactivity setting) and strong personal relationships can lead to a higher medical visit rate, thus reducing the time elapsed since the last visit.