The 20-Yr Outcome in Patients with Well- or Moderately Differentiated Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer Diagnosed in the Pre-PSA Era: The Prognostic Value of Tumour Ploidy and Comorbidity

ObjectiveThis observational cohort study describes the long-term outcome of patients with clinically localized prostate cancer managed with watchful waiting, the prognostic value of tumour ploidy, and the impact of comorbidity.MethodsA total of 119 patients with clinically localized (T1–2) prostate cancer consecutively diagnosed from 1978 to 1982 were prospectively managed by watchful waiting, with treatment given if progression occurred.ResultsMedian age was 68 yr. Median observation time was 24 yr ± 6.25 (SD). Of the 112 patients who died, 42 died of prostate cancer. Disease-specific survival rates were 85% (95% CI: 77–93%), 58% (46–70%), and 32% (19–46%) at 10, 15, and 20 yr, respectively. Treatment-free survival rate was 43% (95% CI: 33–54%) at 10 yr. Patients aged 70 yr and over had a statistically significant increased risk of dying from any cause. There was a statistically significant increased risk of dying from prostate cancer for patients with nondiploid tumours.ConclusionIn the present series from the pre-PSA era, watchful waiting yielded a relatively high long-term disease-specific survival rate in patients with well- or moderately differentiated clinically localized prostate cancer, and almost half were not treated 10 yr after diagnosis. Watchful waiting may be an option at least for such patients with a 10- to 15-yr life expectancy. Age of 70 yr or more predicted an increased overall mortality. High comorbidity increased the risk (although not statistically significant) for death from any cause and for death from prostate cancer. Patients with nondiploid tumours were at an increased risk to die from prostate cancer.