Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Individual Patients with Stage Ta T1 Bladder Cancer Using EORTC Risk Tables: A Combined Analysis of 2596 Patients from Seven EORTC Trials

ObjectivesTo provide tables that allow urologists to easily calculate a superficial bladder cancer patient's short- and long-term risks of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection.MethodsA combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials.ResultsA simple scoring system was derived based on six clinical and pathological factors: number of tumors, tumor size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ, and grade. The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year ranged from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At five years, the probabilities of recurrence and progression ranged from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%.ConclusionsWith these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.