Interprovincial migration of physicians in Canada: Where are they moving and why?

This paper analyzes the provincial characteristics contributing to physician's decision in his/her choice of province of residence. It (1) attempts to determine if, and the extent to which, expected income in a province plays a role in physician's decision; (2) predicts yearly probabilities of physician's choice of province of residence; (3) examines marginal effect of expected income in a province on response (choice of province of residence) probability for physicians residing in each province. We estimated McFadden's conditional logit discrete-choice model with yearly probability of choosing a province of residence as a dependent variable for physicians residing in each province separately. The results show: (1) the effect of expected income in a province on the choice of province of residence is positive and statistically significant for physicians residing in Ontario and Saskatchewan. There are other provincial characteristics besides income that affect physician's choice of province of residence; (2) most physicians choose the province they are currently residing. However, those who choose a province other than the current province of residence, the preference for a certain province varies across physicians residing in different provinces; (3) the marginal effect of expected income in a province on response probability varies across provinces for physicians residing in the same province. It also varies across physicians residing in different provinces for the same amount of change in income in the same province.