A Differential Equation Model for the Dynamics of Youth Gambling

ObjectivesWe examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16–24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.MethodsA simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.ResultsProblem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4–5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18–24 years than in adolescents aged 16–18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.ConclusionPrevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.