Nomogram to Predict Successful Placement in Surgical Subspecialty Fellowships Using Applicant Characteristics

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to develop a model that predicts an individual applicant's probability of successful placement into a surgical subspecialty fellowship program.MethodsCandidates who applied to surgical fellowships during a 3-year period were identified in a set of databases that included the electronic application materials.ResultsOf the 1281 applicants who were available for analysis, 951 applicants (74%) successfully placed into a colon and rectal surgery, thoracic surgery, vascular surgery, or pediatric surgery fellowship. The optimal final prediction model, which was based on a logistic regression, included 14 variables. This model, with a c statistic of 0.74, allowed for the determination of a useful estimate of the probability of placement for an individual candidate.ConclusionsOf the factors that are available at the time of fellowship application, 14 were used to predict accurately the proportion of applicants who will successfully gain a fellowship position.