Biological and psychological predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder onset and chronicity. A one-year prospective study

•Participants were followed to assess the posttraumatic stress disorder development.•We identified the concurrent influence of biological and psychological markers.•Psychological diathesis better predicted onset of posttraumatic stress disorder.•Biological diathesis predicted posttraumatic stress disorder onset and maintenance.

BackgroundFew studies have prospectively examined risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the aftermath of a traumatic exposure. The aim of this study is to identify the concurrent influence of psychological and biological diatheses on PTSD onset and maintenance, taking into account socio-demographic factors and psychiatric antecedents.MethodsA total of 123 civilians (61.8% of women) recruited in emergency units, were assessed using validated instruments during the first week and then at 1, 4, and 12 months post-trauma. Baseline assessment included evaluation of the psychological diathesis (i.e. psychiatric history and peritraumatic distress and dissociation), and the biological diathesis [i.e. cortisol, norepinephrine, epinephrine, c-reactive protein, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, glycosylated haemoglobin, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), body mass index, diastolic and systolic blood pressure (SBP), and heart rate].ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated both psychological and biological diatheses to be independent risk factors for PTSD. Peritraumatic distress and dissociation predicted onset (1-month) and mid-term PTSD (4-months), respectively. PTSD risk was associated positively with SBP and negatively with WHR, throughout the follow-up. In addition, a higher level of 12 h-overnight urinary norepinephrine independently predicted mid-term PTSD (4-months).ConclusionsThis prospective study shows that peritraumatic psychological and biological markers are independent predictors of PTSD onset with specificities according to the stage of PTSD development; the psychological diathesis, i.e. peritraumatic distress and dissociation, being a better predictor of short-term dysfunction whereas biological diathesis was also predictive of development and maintenance of PTSD.