Socio-economic analysis of climate change impacts on foodgrain production in Indian states

•Climate change impacts on foodgrain production, crop-wise for 10 states, 2030–2050.•Panel econometric estimates modelled with projected changes in climate parameters.•High variation in projections across crops, states and over time, 5–18% decrease.•Some states recover from adverse impact, and others continue with losses in production.•Weighting with state level vulnerability indicators to compare outcomes.

This paper analyses the implications of climate change on production of four crop categories – rice, wheat, pulses and coarse cereals for ten large foodgrain producing states in India over the period 2030–2050. Panel econometric estimation technique is used to model supply response and these estimates are subsequently used along with yield and climate parameter projections to derive the expected impacts. The impacts are considerable in aggregate, although they differ substantially in terms of the specific crop, the region (state) and the time period. The observed variations are important to quantify since these have implications for effective planning for adaptation. In certain instances, the adverse implications are reversed over time, while in some these persist. The study further innovates by weighting outcomes with vulnerability indicators at the state level, in order to compare the outcomes in alternative socio-economic terms.