Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada

► We model two IPCC climate scenarios on the Black River Watershed from 2001 to 2100. ► Impacts on total phosphorus (TP) loads to Lake Simcoe are examined. ► Flows increased in winter and reduced in summer. ► TP loads increased throughout the 21st century, predominantly in winter. ► Scenarios reduced, but did not reverse, the impact of climate change upon TP loads.