Modeling wetland vegetation community response to water-level change at Long Point, Ontario

► Spatially explicit models simulate wetland vegetation response to water-levels. ► These include a rule-based model and two probability models. ► Air photos were scanned and interpreted to classify wetlands from 1945 to 1999. ► Rule-based model classifies with ~ 82% accuracy; probabilistic models at 55% and 83%. ► The rule-based model seems to hold the most promise in future modeling efforts.