Predicting the response of Hamilton Harbour to the nutrient loading reductions: A modeling analysis of the “ecological unknowns”

► We examine the likelihood of delisting the Hamilton Harbour as an Area of Concern. ► The chlorophyll a standard of 10 μg L− 1 is achievable. ► The total phosphorus criterion of 17 μg L− 1 is probably stringent. ► The water quality setting process should allow a realistic percentage of violations. ► Further improvements should be achieved by a combined bottom-up and top-down control.