Flood Prediction using Transfer Function Model of Rainfall and Water Discharge Approach in Katulampa Dam

Flood in Indonesia has become a usual event of disasters every year, especially in Jakarta. Losses due to floods in Indonesia are not only a small value, so therefore it is required to have an early warning before flood occurs. Floods can be identified by observing the river water discharge. Transfer function model is used because it is assumed that rainfall is having an influence of water discharge. The transfer function model between Ciliwung River water discharge and rainfall that located at Katulampa Dam, the Dam of Ciliwung River, East Bogor, this model could be a solution for early warning of floods. The results of the research shows that the transfer function model which has been obtained can explain the relationship between the water discharge and the rainfall for two months previously. The results of the forecast using the transfer function approach the actual data closely for the first two months after the final data input. Transfer function model is a better forecast model than ARIMA model of water discharge.