Application of a level IV fugacity model to simulate the long-term fate of hexachlorocyclohexane isomers in the lower reach of Yellow River basin, China

A level IV multimedia fugacity model was established to simulate the fate and transfer of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin, China, during 1952-2010. The predicted concentrations of HCHs are in good agreement with the observed ones, as indicated by the residual errors being generally lower than 0.5 logarithmic units. The effects of extensive agricultural application and subsequent prohibition of HCHs are reflected by the temporal variation of HCHs predicted by the model. It is predicted that only 1.8 tons of HCHs will be left in 2010, less than 0.06% of the highest contents (in 1983) in the study area, and about 99% of HCHs remain in soil. The proportions of HCH isomers in the environment also changed with time due to their different physicochemical properties. Although β-HCH is not the main component of the technical HCHs, it has become the most abundant isomer in the environment because of its persistence. The dominant transfer processes between the adjacent compartments were deposition from air to soil, air diffusion through the air-water interface and runoff from soil to water. Sensitivity analysis showed that degradation rate in soil, parameters related to major sources, and thickness of soils had the strongest influence on the model result. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicated the overall uncertainty of model predictions, and the coefficients of variation of the estimated concentrations of HCHs in all the compartments ranged from 0.5 to 5.8.