An environmental risk assessment for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) for sewage works and surface waters under seasonal-influenza- and pandemic-use conditions

In the event of an influenza pandemic, anti-viral medications such as oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) are expected to be used in high amounts over a duration of several weeks. Oseltamivir has been predicted to reach high concentrations in surface waters and sewage works. New oseltamivir environmental fate and toxicity studies permit an environmental risk assessment (ERA) under seasonal- and pandemic-use scenarios. The environmental fate data for sewage works (no removal), surface waters (no significant degradation), and water/sediment systems (>50% primary degradation in 100 days) were used for the derivation of new predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) for western Europe and the River Lee catchment in the UK. Existing worst-case PECs for western Europe, the River Lee catchment in the UK and the Lower Colorado basin in the USA under pandemic conditions (⩽98.1 μg/L for surface waters, ⩽348 μg/L for sewage works) were also considered for the ERA. PECs were compared with predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) based on new chronic ecotoxicity data (no observed effect concentration for algae, daphnia, and fish ⩾1 mg/L). Based on all PEC/PNEC risk ratios, no significant risk is evident to surface waters or sewage works during both regular seasonal-use and high pandemic-use of oseltamivir.