Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.

► We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate population-level impacts of PCB contamination. ► The model was also used to explore the population responses to different PCB remediation strategies. ► Population size had a large impact on whether mink populations persisted or went extinct. ► Starting remediation sooner had a stronger positive effect on mink populations than did the rate of PCB clean-up. ► Individual-based models are useful in understanding effects of contamination and different remediation strategies.