Impact of dedicated E85 vehicle use on ozone and particulate matter in the US

Increased use of ethanol as a vehicle fuel worldwide warrants the need to understand air quality impacts of replacing gasoline with ethanol. This study evaluates the impacts of dedicated E85 (85% ethanol/15% gasoline) light-duty vehicles on emissions, ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the United States for a future year (2022) using a 3-D photochemical model, detailed emissions inventories that account for changes in all sectors studied, and winter and summer meteorology that occurred in 2002. Use of E85 introduces new emissions from ethanol production and distribution, reduces petrochemical industry emissions due to lower gasoline consumption, changes on-road vehicle emissions and alters biogenic emissions due to land use changes. Three scenarios with increased ethanol production for dedicated E85 light-duty vehicles were compared to a base case without increased ethanol production. Increased use of E85 caused both increases and decreases in ozone and PM, driven mainly by changes in NOx emissions related to biogenic and upstream petrochemical industry sources. In all states modeled, adoption of dedicated E85 vehicles caused negligible change in average higher ozone and PM concentrations of importance for air quality management strategies. Ozone and PM changes are relatively insensitive to how land area is allocated for switchgrass production. The findings are subject to various uncertainties, especially those in vehicle technology and emissions from cellulosic ethanol production.

► Simulations of E85 use in dedicated vehicles in the US. ► Scenarios for 36 and 51 billion gallons of ethanol in year 2022. ► Estimated emissions from ethanol production and distribution and land use. ► Small changes, relative to conventional gasoline vehicles, in higher ozone and PM.