Prognosis of Central-Eastern Mediterranean waterspouts

The North American waterspout forecasting methodology by Szilagyi is applied on a sample of 110 waterspout events for the years 2002–2006 over the Central-Eastern Mediterranean (the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea). First, the geographical distribution and frequency of the phenomena are shown. Four synoptic types of waterspout-prone circulation patterns are considered. For the Adriatic cases, five thermodynamic indices (KI, TT, SWEAT, CAPE, BRN) are used as possible predictors. The testing of the Szilagyi Waterspout Nomogram and Index (SWI), developed for the Great Lakes region, was favorable for the Mediterranean case data, validating its use as a prognostic tool. Results were presented and discussed at the 4th European Conference on Severe Storms ECSS at Trieste. Meteorologists should standardize and evaluate waterspout prognostic tools and implement a visual interface to improve the service for relevant user groups.