Assessing the impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on evapotranspiration

•Interannual variability of P and Ep reduces long-term mean evapotranspiration E.•The reductions are linked to the concave nature of the Budyko curve.•Interannual variability of P and Ep induces interannual variability of E.•Daily rainfall depth and frequency of daily rainfall depth affect E differently.

The impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration as well as on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration is studied using a stochastic soil moisture model within the Budyko framework. Results indicate that given the same long-term mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation, including interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation reduces the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration. This reduction effect is mostly prominent when the dryness index (i.e., the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) is within the range from 0.5 to 2. The maximum reductions in the evaporation ratio (i.e., the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation) can reach 8–10% for a range of coefficient of variation (CV) values for precipitation and potential evaporation. The relations between the maximum reductions and the CV values of precipitation and potential evaporation follow power laws. Hence the larger the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation becomes, the larger the reductions in the evaporation ratio will be. The inclusion of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation also increases the interannual variability of evapotranspiration. It is found that the interannual variability of daily rainfall depth and that of the frequency of daily rainfall events have quantitatively different impacts on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration; and they also interact differently with the interannual variability of potential evaporation. The results presented in this study demonstrate the importance of understanding the role of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation in land surface hydrology under a warming climate.

Graphical abstractIncreasing the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation increases the interannual variability of evapotranspiration but reduces the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration. The reduction in the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration is due to the concave nature of the Budyko curve.Figure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slide