Hydrologic vulnerability to climate change of the Mandrone glacier (Adamello-Presanella group, Italian Alps)

In order to assess the annual mass balance of the Mandrone glacier in the Central Alps an energy-balance model was applied, supported by snowpack, meteorological and glaciological observations, together with satellite measurements of snow covered areas and albedo. The Physically based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model (PDSLIM), a distributed multi-layer model for temperate glaciers, which was previously tested on both basin and point scales, was applied.Verification was performed with a network of ablation stakes over two summer periods. Satellite images processed within the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project were used to estimate the ice albedo and to verify the position of the simulated transient snowline on specific dates. The energy balance was estimated for the Mandrone and Presena glaciers in the Central Italian Alps. Their modeled balances (−1439 and −1503 mm w.e. year−1, respectively), estimated over a 15 year period, are in good agreement with those obtained with the glaciological method for the Caresèr glacier, a WGMS (World Glacier Monitoring Service) reference located in the nearby Ortles-Cevedale group.Projections according to the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (standing for COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model in CLimate Mode) indicate that the Mandrone glacier might not survive the current century and might be halved in size by 2050.

Graphical abstractFigure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slideHighlights► Hydrological model set up and simulation of energy and mass balance of a glacier. ► B1 and A1B regional CLM climate change scenarios analysis in the Adamello glacier area. ► Building of input meteorological time series according to future scenarios. ► Effects on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the mass balance of the Mandrone glacier. ► Evolution of the shape of the Mandrone glacier.