Two-dimensional stochastic analysis of flow in leaky confined aquifers subject to spatial and periodic leakage

This paper addresses the issue of flow in heterogeneous leaky confined aquifers subject to leakage. The leakage into the confined aquifer is driven by spatial and periodic fluctuations of water table in an overlying phreatic aquifer. The introduction of leakage leads to non-uniformity in the mean head gradient and results in nonstationarity in hydraulic head and velocity fields. Therefore, a nonstationary spectral approach based on Fourier–Stieltjes representations for the perturbed quantities is adopted to account for the spatial variability of nonstationary head fields. Closed-form expressions for the variances of hydraulic head and specific discharge are developed in terms of statistical properties of hydraulic parameters. The results indicate that the spatiotemporal variations in leakage leads to enhanced variability of the hydraulic head and of the specific discharge, which increase with distance from any arbitrary reference point. The coefficient of leakage and the spatial structure of log transmissivity field and of the amplitude of water table fluctuation are critical in quantifying the variability of the hydraulic head and of the specific discharge.