Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of bottom fishes and crabs on the eastern Bering Sea shelf

This study uses a 30-year time series of standardized bottom trawl survey data (1982–2011) from the eastern Bering Sea shelf to model patterns of summer spatial distribution for various bottom fishes and crabs in response to changes in the areal extent of the cold pool, time lag between surveys, and fluctuations in population abundance. This investigation is the first to include data for the 2006–2010 cold period and to use between-year comparisons of local and shelf-wide spatial indices to test specific responses to three different isothermal boundaries within the cold pool. Distributional shifts in population varied considerably among species and directional vectors for some species were greater in magnitude to the east or west than to the north or south; however, in general, eastern Bering Sea shelf populations shifted southward in response to the increasing cold pool size, and after accounting for differences in temperature and population abundance, there was still a temporal northward shift in populations over the last three decades despite the recent cooling trend. Model results for local and shelf-wide indices showed that survey time lag and cold pool extent had a greater effect on spatial distribution than population abundance, suggesting that density-independent mechanisms play a major role in shaping distribution patterns on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. The area enclosed by the 1 °C isotherm most commonly affects both local and shelf-wide spatial indices suggesting that 1 °C is a more important boundary for describing temperature preferences of eastern Bering Sea bottom fishes and crabs than is the 2 °C isotherm used for designating the physical boundary for the cold pool.